FX markets — week of 28 September to 2 October 2026
General information, based on public sources. This is not investment advice. Read the risk warning.
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its policy rate by 25 basis points, to 4.60 per cent, on 29 September. No other central bank in the group of eight decided during the week.
The US employment report published on 2 October reports 29,000 jobs created in September, an unemployment rate of 4.2 per cent and a participation rate of 61.8 per cent. Average hourly earnings rise 0.1 per cent on the month and 3.0 per cent on the year. The two previous months are revised down by 60,000 in total. August factory orders come in up 0.1 per cent.
In the euro area, the September inflation estimate stands at 3.8 per cent for the headline index and 2.5 per cent for the core index, against 2.4 per cent in August.
The French government presented its 2027 draft budget on 1 October, carrying 43 billion euros of new measures for a deficit brought back to 5.0 per cent of gross domestic product against 5.4 per cent this year.
On 2 October, the group of seven countries announced a coordinated release of up to 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil over four months, coordinated by the International Energy Agency. The same day, Scope Ratings kept the United States at AA- with a stable outlook. According to the press, the president of the Bundesbank judged that German growth could reach about 1 per cent this year.
In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar was the firmest currency of the week, up 0.61 per cent on an unweighted average against the seven others, and the euro the weakest, down 0.76 per cent.
To watch from 5 to 9 October 2026 (New York time)
- Monday 5 October, 9:45am: S&P Global services index in the United States
- Monday 5 October, 10:00am: ISM services index in the United States
- Monday 5 October: speeches by Philip Lane and Isabel Schnabel, European Central Bank
- Tuesday 6 October, 2:00am: factory orders in Germany
- Tuesday 6 October, 4:30am: speech by Catherine Mann, Bank of England
- Tuesday 6 October, 8:30am: trade balances of the United States and Canada
- Tuesday 6 October, 10:00am: Ivey index in Canada
- Tuesday 6 October, 10:45am: speech by Michelle Bowman, Federal Reserve
- Tuesday 6 October, 12:00pm: short-term energy outlook from the Energy Information Administration
- Tuesday 6 October, 1:00pm: US three-year auction
- Wednesday 7 October, 2:00am: industrial production in Germany
- Wednesday 7 October: Reserve Bank of India decision
- Wednesday 7 October, 10:30am: weekly US oil inventories
- Wednesday 7 October, 1:00pm: US ten-year auction
- Wednesday 7 October, 2:00pm: Federal Reserve minutes
- Thursday 8 October, 4:30am: speech by Christopher Waller, Federal Reserve
- Thursday 8 October, 4:30am: Bank of England credit conditions and bank liabilities surveys
- Thursday 8 October, 7:30am: European Central Bank accounts
- Thursday 8 October, 8:30am: weekly US jobless claims
- Thursday 8 October: euro-zone finance ministers' meeting in Luxembourg, and speech by Andrew Bailey, Bank of England
- Thursday 8 October, 1:00pm: US thirty-year auction
- Friday 9 October, 8:30am: employment in Canada
- Friday 9 October, 10:00am: University of Michigan consumer sentiment
- Friday 9 October, 1:00pm: Baker Hughes US rig count
- Friday 9 October, 3:30pm: CFTC non-commercial net positions
- Sunday 11 October: opening of the International Monetary Fund meeting
Every release, in your own time zone, is in the economic calendar.
The week's figures, central bank pricing, COT positioning, yields and cross-asset, are in My Trading Book, alongside your trading journal.
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