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FX markets — week of 5 to 9 October 2026

General information, based on public sources. This is not investment advice. Read the risk warning.

None of the eight central banks covered took a rate decision during the week.

The minutes of the Fed's September meeting, published on 7 October, state that most participants judge a further hike probably appropriate by the end of the year and that all nineteen participants supported raising the policy rate to 3.75-4.00 per cent.

Canadian September employment, published on 9 October, shows a contraction of 68,300 jobs, after a contraction of 41,700 in August. The consensus expected 9,200 new jobs.

The two US services surveys published on 5 October came in at 58.8 for one and 54.9 for the other. Their price components reached their highest since November 2022 and since July 2022 respectively. The US three-year auction of 6 October was filled at 4.932 per cent, against 4.474 per cent at the previous one, with a cover ratio of 2.62 times for an average of 2.65 and indirect buyers at 57.6 per cent against 65.9.

On 9 October, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin covering deliveries of Russian diesel, followed by a temporary general licence from the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control. On 10 October, the Russian government announced the partial lifting of its diesel export ban, for 500,000 tonnes and effective Saturday. The International Energy Agency called on 11 October for further diesel stock releases.

UK maritime authorities have recorded nine attacks in the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the month. Riyadh airport was attacked on 10 and 11 October; the Saudi authorities report twelve dead and three hundred and nine injured.

The ten-year yield spread between France and Germany moved from 140.1 to 138.1 basis points over the week, and the spread between France and Italy from 24.9 to 26.9 basis points. According to Bloomberg, the latter reached a record on 9 October. Over the week, the Italian ten-year yield fell 3.5 basis points and the French 0.4. The interior ministry counted 71,500 demonstrators on 8 October; 141 schools were still closed on 9 October.

Michael Theurer, member of the Bundesbank Executive Board, said on 10 October that there is no systemic sovereign debt crisis but that the risks have increased significantly. According to Bloomberg, Christine Lagarde told finance ministers that the ECB has the instruments needed to stabilise markets should that become necessary. According to Bloomberg, the European Union is considering a 160 billion euro reduction in the proposed multiannual budget.

According to Citigroup, the US Treasury could cut the size of twenty- and thirty-year auctions by 3 billion dollars each at the quarterly refunding announcement of 4 November.

Every release, in your own time zone, is in the economic calendar.