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FX markets — week of 12 to 16 October 2026

General information, based on public sources. This is not investment advice. Read the risk warning.

None of the eight central banks covered took a rate decision during the week.

The US consumer price index for September, published on 14 October, came out at 3.7 per cent year on year against 3.6 per cent expected, and at 2.6 per cent for the core against 2.5. The producer price index, published on 15 October, rose 1.3 per cent on the month against 0.5 per cent expected, and 0.7 per cent for the core against 0.3. The same day, retail sales rose 0.8 per cent against 0.3 expected, their control group 0.1 per cent against 0.3, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia manufacturing index fell to 20.9 from 37.8. On 16 October, industrial production rose 0.7 per cent against an expected 0.1 per cent fall, and import prices 1.1 per cent against 0.4.

Australian September employment, published on 14 October at 20:30 New York time, fell by 39,300 jobs against 19,900 expected; the unemployment rate rose to 4.7 per cent against 4.6 expected. UK August gross domestic product, published on 15 October, rose 0.1 per cent against 0.0 expected. The euro-area final consumer price index for September, published on 16 October, came out at 3.8 per cent against 2.9 expected. Chinese September exports rose 36.3 per cent year on year against 21.8 per cent expected.

The US Treasury closed fiscal year 2026 on 16 October with a deficit of 1,992.5 billion dollars, up 12.2 per cent, and gross interest outlays of 1,360.0 billion, up 11.9 per cent. Net foreign purchases of long-term US securities reached 279.2 billion dollars in August, against 118.6 billion expected.

Brent ended the week at 109.811 dollars after 104.409, and WTI at 101.724 after 91.634. The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted missiles over the Red Sea, one of them aimed at the port of Yanbu, and Houthi attacks on Saudi territory continued over the weekend. On 16 October, Donald Trump announced he would waive part of the new Russia sanctions law.

The ten-year yield spread between France and Germany moved from 138.1 to 143.3 basis points over the week. On 17 October, protests across France drew more than 550,000 people according to the Interior Ministry, which counted 2,397 arrests; the Limoges city hall was set on fire. On 18 October, Emmanuel Macron announced that prefects could ban demonstrations together with mayors. On 17 October, Christine Lagarde told the International Monetary and Financial Committee that fiscal sustainability remains a "crucial anchor".

Week of 19 October: Chinese third-quarter gross domestic product on Sunday 18 at 22:00; Canadian consumer prices on Monday at 08:30; UK labour market on Tuesday at 02:00; UK consumer prices on Wednesday at 02:00 and a speech by Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, at 09:00; New Zealand third-quarter consumer prices on Wednesday at 17:45; Japanese consumer prices on Thursday at 19:30; UK retail sales on Friday at 02:00 and Moody's review of France's rating on Friday. The Federal Reserve is in its blackout period ahead of its 27–28 October meeting; the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decide on 28 October, the European Central Bank on the 29th and the Bank of Japan on the 30th.

Every release, in your own time zone, is in the economic calendar.