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FX markets — week of 19 to 23 October 2026

General information, based on public sources. This is not investment advice. Read the risk warning.

None of the eight central banks followed took a rate decision during the week. On 21 October, Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, called the inflation outlook materially worse than in August; on 25 October, Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said the fight against inflation was "not quite yet" over.

In the United Kingdom, the unemployment rate published on 20 October drops back to 4.7 per cent against 5.0 per cent expected; September inflation, published on the 21st, comes in at 3.5 per cent year on year against 3.4 per cent. On 23 October, GfK consumer confidence falls to −24 against −14 expected and September retail sales drop 0.4 per cent against −0.1 per cent. In Canada, September consumer prices, published on 19 October, come in at 3.1 per cent year on year against 3.2 per cent; industrial producer prices, published on the 22nd, rise 2.0 per cent on the month against 0.9 per cent. In New Zealand, third-quarter inflation comes in at 3.7 per cent year on year against 3.8 per cent. In Japan, inflation excluding fresh food comes in at 2.1 per cent in September, in line with expectations.

The October flash PMIs, published on the 23rd, come in at 51.9 for the euro area against 52.7 expected, 48.4 for France against 50.5 and 53.1 for the United Kingdom against 51.8. In the United States, the flash manufacturing PMI rises to 56.0 against 55.5; September housing starts, published on the 20th, fall to an annualised 1.221 million against 1.305 million expected, and pending home sales drop 7.3 per cent. University of Michigan consumer sentiment ends October at 48.0. China's third-quarter gross domestic product grows 4.5 per cent year on year against 4.4 per cent expected.

The Australian dollar is the strongest currency of the week and the euro the weakest. Brent ends the week at 116.796 dollars after 109.811. Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia continued; on 21 October, the United States ordered part of its diplomatic staff out of the country, then adjusted staffing at other embassies in the region, and Riyadh's international airport reopened on 25 October after a two-week closure.

The ten-year yield spread between France and Germany moves from 143.3 to 166.5 basis points over the week. On 24 October, 410,000 people demonstrated in France according to the Interior Ministry, against 550,000 on the 17th; 1,314 people were arrested. Late on 23 October, Moody's kept France's rating at Aa3 with a negative outlook. The French unions are calling a national day of strikes and demonstrations on 5 November.

Week of 26 October: German Ifo business climate on Monday at 5:30; Conference Board consumer confidence on Tuesday at 10:00, a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde at 13:00, and third-quarter Australian consumer prices at 20:30; Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision on Tuesday at 21:00; UK budget on Wednesday, Bank of Canada decision at 9:45 and Federal Reserve decision at 14:00; US third-quarter gross domestic product and personal consumption prices on Thursday at 8:30, European Central Bank decision at 9:15 and Bank of Japan decision at 22:30; French, German and euro-area gross domestic product and national inflation figures on Friday, US employment cost index at 8:30. Israel holds its general election on Tuesday 27 October and the United States its midterm elections on 3 November. All times are New York time.

Every release, in your own time zone, is in the economic calendar.